Saturday, March 01, 2008

Inclusive Growth ?

If you haven't yet read any of P Sainath's research on India's agrarian crisis and 150,000 farmer suicides from 1997 to 2005, please do so.

Anyway, Sainath often talks about how the Sensex (Stock Index) and the Misery Index of the poor in India are inversely proportional. For example, consider this excerpt from one of his articles

It all happened around the same time. The day the Sensex crossed 19,000, India clocked in 94th (That's out of 118 countries) in the Global Hunger Index - behind Ethiopia. Both stories did make it to the front page (in one daily at least). But, of course, the GHI ranking was mostly buried inside or not carried at all that day. The joy over the stunning rise of the media's most loved index held on for a bit the next day. The same day, India clocked in as the leading nation in the number of women dying in childbirth. In this list, the second, third and fourth worst countries put together just about matched India's 1.17 lakh deaths of women in childbirth. This story appeared in single column just beneath the Sensex surge.

The facts to prove Sainath's point about the twisted inverse proportionality never stop pouring in. On Friday,
India’s Finance Minister P. Chidambaram unveiled a so called "populist" budget. It proposes $15 billion to write off debt owed by small farmers to banks. The Sensex reacted in its twisted fashion. India’s stock markets fell on news of the government proposal to waive the debt of small farmers. The Sensex index was 1.4 per cent lower at 17,579 points at the provisional close.

Of course, significant portion of India's population depends on agriculture which is expected to grow at a measly rate (2.6%) compared to the rest of economy (8%)

The "populist" budget also reveals its dark underbelly. Defense spending is up by 10 per cent to 26.4 billion dollars, to fund a mammoth modernisation programme. The usual justification is of course, Security! We need more of it, forever!. India is planning one of its biggest ever arms purchases, a $10 billion deal to buy some 26 fighter jets and US Defense Secretary Robert Gates was in India earlier this week to push (pimp ?) American bids for that deal (Military Industrial Complex alert!). India also has plans to spend $30 billion on imports over the next four years to modernise its largely Soviet-era arms (the usual boondoggles). Yes, all this is somehow going to improve security, we're supposed to naively accept. Apparently, dissatisfied defense officials think this increase is "not adequate".

The Financial Times says India’s poor gain from budget

The entire budget speech can be found at Finance Minister P.Chidambaram's Budget Speech 2008-09


References:
Indexing inhumanity, Indian style
India raises defence spending, writes off $15bn farmers’ loans
US, India to study joint missile defence, says Gates
India's defence budget rises, but problems remain

Finance Minister P.Chidambaram's Budget Speech 2008-09

2 comments:

UpDog! said...

A strong/modern army is a sure way of being taken more seriously. I'm not sure what wld happen if a country focussed purely on growth (both agri and other sectors) ignoring defense and without an overseer (like Japan had). I tend to think other countries wld take undue advantage of it's military weakness. As much as I hate it, we still live in a primitive world where when all the layers are pulled back, 'might is right' and brute force can extinguish even the strongest thinker. Ne-c'est pas?

Spider said...

Strong/modern army would be nice if it actually worked. Its not like we feel any safer. instead we have to live in perpetual fear of nuclear holocaust and random violence. How is an army going to help against random (asymmetrical) terrorist attacks. If anything, it instigates them.

Anyway, my main point being ... when exactly does it end ? one country builds up, and then other countries follow with more shit and so on ad nauseum. It may appear that 'Might is Right' rules the day but it doesn't always have to be like that as far as human affairs are concerned (we're on a VERY long timeline as far as human history is concerned, so things CAN and WILL change)